Editorial by John Ziegler

John Ziegler's Final Election Predictions

11/3/2008

In 2004 my day before the election predictions were arguable the best in the nation (right down to predicting John Edwards would come out and try to lay the groundwork for Florida recount part 2, though I got the time of his address wrong by a couple of hours). Here are my predictions for 2008..

Like 2004, the exit polls are going to be gruesome for the Republican side. Then, I think very early on it will look like McCain is holding his own and maybe even going to pull off a miracle.

Unfortunately, I still think the very best that John McCain can do is lose 278-260 in the Electoral College and, because he is being forced to defend such a large map with such limited resources, just a few votes going the other way could alter the final EC significantly. I think it is possible that Obama wins an EC  blowout as large as 364-174 without winning the popular vote by that large a margin. There will be a LOT of very close states, but even if McCain runs the table it is almost impossible (without Pennsylvania or at least Virginia, both of which are VERY long shots)  to see how McCain gets to 270.

As for the actual result, I am guessing 291-247, but that is very much on the optimistic side. As for popular vote, I say it will be 51.7 to 47.1.

May Tiger help us all.

Return to Editorials >>


Search JohnZiegler.com